What It Does

Lockheed Martin is one of the largest defense contractors in the world. It operates through four business segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. In 2025, sales were $75.0 billion, split across those segments at $30.3B, $14.5B, $17.3B, and $13.0B, respectively.

Its best-known platform is the F-35, but the company is much more than a single aircraft maker. It also has deep exposure to missile defense, tactical strike systems, helicopters, naval systems, command-and-control, and strategic space programs. That matters because it spreads Lockheed’s relevance across multiple defense priorities rather than tying the business to only one procurement theme.

How It Makes Money

Lockheed makes money through long-term government contracts, mostly with the U.S. government and allied nations. In 2025, 72% of sales came from the U.S. Government, including 63% from the Department of Defense, while 28% came from international customers.

This is important for investors because defense is not a “sell once and move on” business. Programs often produce decades of value through:

• original production,
• maintenance and sustainment,
• software and mission upgrades,
• spare parts,
• training and logistics support.

That creates recurring economic value even when the original platform is already in service.

Why Lockheed Has a Moat

Lockheed’s moat is not built on consumer branding. It is built on barriers to entry, trust, installed base, contract entrenchment, and national-security relevance.

1. Extremely high barriers to entry

Very few companies can design, integrate, manufacture, and sustain advanced fighter aircraft, missile defense systems, strategic missiles, and classified space systems at scale. This is a capital-intensive, regulation-heavy, technically demanding industry with a very small club of credible competitors.

2. Platform stickiness

Once a government commits to a platform like the F-35 or another major defense system, switching is costly and disruptive. Training, spare parts, maintenance infrastructure, software, interoperability, and doctrine all get built around the platform. That creates powerful customer stickiness.

3. Massive backlog

At year-end 2025, Lockheed reported $193.6 billion of backlog, up from $176.0 billion a year earlier. That kind of backlog gives visibility that most industrial companies simply do not have.

4. Installed base and sustainment tail

Defense platforms are not one-and-done transactions. The real value often extends for decades through upgrades, logistics, readiness work, spare parts, and modernization. That makes the economic life of a successful platform much longer than the initial sale suggests.

Financial Snapshot

Lockheed’s recent numbers show a business with strong revenue scale and cash generation, though not without program volatility.

In 2025, Lockheed reported:

• Sales: $75.0B
• Net earnings: $5.0B
• Operating cash flow: $8.6B
• Free cash flow: $6.9B
• Consolidated operating profit: $7.7B

Backlog remained very strong, and management continued returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. That said, earnings quality was not perfectly smooth. Some segments were hit by reach-forward losses and program-specific issues, especially in 2025.

Key Metrics

Here are the metrics you asked to include.

ROE

Using 2025 net income of $5.017B and average equity based on 2024 and 2025 year-end stockholders’ equity of $6.333B and $6.721B, Lockheed’s approximate ROE is about 77%.

That number is eye-catching, but it needs context. Lockheed’s equity base is relatively small because of years of buybacks, pension effects, and accumulated accounting items. So the high ROE is real mathematically, but it is also inflated by a thin equity base. In other words, this is not the same kind of ROE you would interpret at a lightly leveraged software company.

ROIC

Using 2025 consolidated operating profit of $7.731B, a 2025 effective tax rate of 15.3%, and a rough invested-capital approach of debt + equity – cash, Lockheed’s approximate ROIC comes out around 25%–26%. That implies very strong capital efficiency for an industrial defense business.

As always, ROIC can vary depending on the exact formula used. For Lockheed, pension accounting, contract assets/liabilities, and the unusually small equity base can make the ratio look better or worse depending on methodology. Still, the broad message is the same: this is a high-quality cash-generating business.

Debt / EBITDA

Lockheed reported total debt of $22.9B at year-end 2025. Total depreciation and amortization was $1.687B, and consolidated operating profit was $7.731B, which gives an approximate EBITDA of $9.4B. On that basis, Debt/EBITDA is about 2.4x.

That is not ultra-low leverage, but it is still reasonable for a company with Lockheed’s backlog, government relationships, and cash generation. Using cash of $4.1B, net debt would be lower, which would make net debt/EBITDA closer to about 2.0x.

Growth Drivers

Several factors can support Lockheed over time.

Rising geopolitical tension

Ongoing geopolitical stress tends to support demand for air defense, missile systems, fighter modernization, and space-based capabilities. Lockheed’s portfolio is positioned where many governments are increasing focus.

Missile systems and air defense

Missiles and Fire Control had a strong rebound in 2025, helped by higher volume on programs such as JASSM, LRASM, GMLRS, and PrSM. These areas remain strategically important in current defense planning.

Space and strategic programs

The Space segment benefited from programs such as NGI and FBM, showing that Lockheed is not dependent only on aircraft. Strategic and missile defense exposure adds another durable pillar to the story.

What Worries Me

Lockheed is a strong business, but not a perfect one.

F-35 concentration

The F-35 remains central to the story. That is a strength, but also a concentration risk. Large programs can become political targets, operational bottlenecks, or sources of unexpected cost pressure.

Budget dependence

The company still depends heavily on U.S. government budgets. Even if total defense spending remains healthy, individual programs can still face delays, reprioritization, or restructuring.

Program losses

2025 reminded investors that defense contractors can suffer painful losses on complex contracts. Aeronautics and RMS both faced meaningful reach-forward losses on certain programs, which hurt profitability.

Valuation and Fair Value

As of March 12, 2026, LMT was trading around $652.83.

Since my fair value estimate is $650, the stock is basically trading right around fair value. That suggests a pretty balanced setup:

• not obviously cheap,
• not obviously overpriced,
• probably more of a hold / accumulate on weakness than an aggressive bargain buy.

For a wide-moat defense name, that is not a bad place to be. It just means the margin of safety is thin at today’s quote.

Could a Defense ETF Be the Better Strategy?

Yes — for many investors, owning a defense ETF may actually be the cleaner strategy. It reduces single-program risk, single-management risk, and contract-specific blowups while still letting you benefit from the broader defense trend.

Here are a few good options.

ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

ITA is the classic “buy the big names” defense ETF. It tracks U.S. aerospace and defense companies and tends to lean more toward the established heavyweights. This can be attractive if you want meaningful exposure to companies like Lockheed, RTX, Boeing, and Northrop without having to pick one winner.

This is a good fit if your view is:
“I want exposure to the major incumbents.”

XAR — SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF

XAR takes a more equal-weighted approach, which means it does not let mega-caps dominate the fund as much. As of March 11, 2026, Lockheed was only about 4.04% of holdings, with other names also carrying meaningful weights. Its gross expense ratio is 0.35%.

This is a good fit if your view is:
“I want broader defense exposure and less concentration in the giants.”

PPA — Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF

PPA is broader, with exposure not only to defense but also homeland security and aerospace. As of February 28, 2026, it had 60 holdings and a 0.58% expense ratio.

This is a good fit if your view is:
“I want a broader basket beyond just the largest prime contractors.”

My Take

If someone has high conviction specifically in Lockheed Martin, owning LMT directly can make sense. It is a high-quality, wide-moat defense business with strong backlog, strong cash generation, and deep strategic relevance.

But if the goal is to benefit from defense as a theme, an ETF can be a smarter approach because it reduces stock-specific risk. In that sense:

• ITA is better for large-cap defense concentration,
• XAR is better for diversification within the industry,
• PPA is better for a broader aerospace/defense/homeland-security basket.

Bottom Line

Lockheed Martin is still one of the premier names in defense. It has real moat characteristics: high barriers to entry, sticky platforms, long contracts, and a huge installed base. Financially, it still shows strong underlying quality, with approximate ROE near 77%, ROIC around 25%–26%, and Debt/EBITDA around 2.4x.

At around $655, at the time of this writing, with my fair value at $650, the stock looks roughly fairly valued today.

So the real question is not whether Lockheed is a good company. It is. The better question is whether you want:

one elite defense name, or
a diversified way to own the whole defense trend.

For many investors, especially those who do not want company-specific surprises, a defense ETF may actually be the better long-term vehicle.

Ajinomoto is a Japanese global company built around:

1. Food & Seasonings
2. Amino Acid / Bioscience Technologies
3. Electronic Materials — most notably Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF)

This mix creates a unique profile:
consumer-staples stability + semiconductor exposure.

What Ajinomoto Does

1️⃣ Seasonings & Foods — The Core Cash Engine

• MSG / umami seasonings
• Flavor seasonings and sauces
• Consumer packaged foods
• Strong presence in Japan and across Asia

This segment provides steady, recurring demand. These are everyday essentials, not discretionary luxuries.

2️⃣ Frozen Foods

• Domestic and overseas frozen food portfolio
• More cyclical and margin-sensitive
• Adds scale and distribution strength

3️⃣ Healthcare & Others — Where ABF Lives

This segment includes:

• Functional materials (electronic materials, including ABF)
• Bio-pharma services and ingredients
• Amino acids for pharma and food applications

This is the segment that transforms Ajinomoto from a traditional food company into a strategic materials player.

Understanding ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film)

ABF is a high-performance insulating film used in advanced semiconductor substrates. It enables:

• High layer counts
• Fine circuit patterning
• Strong electrical and thermal performance

It is essential for:

• CPUs
• GPUs
• AI accelerators
• High-performance servers

Without ABF-type materials, modern advanced packaging would not function at current performance levels.

Is Ajinomoto the Only Producer?

Short answer:

Not literally the only producer — but overwhelmingly dominant.

Ajinomoto (through its affiliate Ajinomoto Fine-Techno) is estimated to hold roughly 95–98% global market share in ABF film production.

That level of dominance is rare in semiconductor materials.

Some smaller alternative suppliers occasionally cited include:

• Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
• WaferChem
• Taiyo Ink

However, none approach Ajinomoto’s scale or capabilities in high-density applications.

Important Distinction: ABF Film vs ABF Substrate

Many companies manufacture ABF substrates, but most rely on Ajinomoto’s film.

Major substrate makers include:

• Unimicron Technology Corp.
• Ibiden Co., Ltd.
• Nan Ya PCB Corporation
• Shinko Electric Industries Co., Ltd.
• AT&S

Ajinomoto supplies the material layer — it does not compete in substrate board manufacturing.

Business Mix: How Large Is the ABF Segment?

Ajinomoto does not break out ABF revenue separately. It sits inside:

Healthcare & Others → Functional Materials

For fiscal year ended March 31, 2025:

• Total sales: ¥1,530.5B
• Healthcare & Others sales: ¥328.3B (~21% of total)
• Total business profit: ¥159.3B
• Healthcare & Others business profit: ¥38.1B

ABF is a slice of this ~21% revenue bucket, which tends to carry higher margins than typical food operations.

Moat Analysis

Strongest Moat Area: ABF / Electronic Materials

• High customer qualification barriers
• Deep materials science know-how
• Long switching cycles
• Embedded in AI and HPC supply chains
• Extremely limited credible competition

At the business-unit level, ABF displays narrow-to-wide moat characteristics.

Moderate Moat Area: Food & Seasonings

• Strong brands and distribution
• Recurring demand
• Exposed to commodity input costs

Durable — but not a structural toll booth like Visa or ASML.

Ajinomoto as a Defensive Position

Ajinomoto functions best as a defensive-growth hybrid.

The food and seasoning businesses provide stable demand and smooth earnings during downturns. The amino acid and bio-ingredient businesses add structural healthcare exposure.

Meanwhile, ABF introduces semiconductor and AI-linked upside.

The result:

• Defensive consumer staples foundation
• Structural healthcare exposure
• Select semiconductor growth optionality

Compared to pure semiconductor equipment companies like Applied Materials, Inc. or Lam Research Corporation, Ajinomoto typically experiences lower volatility because its food business cushions industry cycles.

Defensive Score (Relative)

On a 1–10 defensive scale:

• Coca-Cola Company: 9
• Procter & Gamble: 8.5
• Ajinomoto Co., Inc.: 7–7.5

This places Ajinomoto below pure consumer staple giants, but meaningfully more defensive than most semiconductor equipment names.

Financial Snapshot

Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2025:

• Sales: ¥1,530.5B
• Business profit: ¥159.3B

Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2024:

• Sales: ¥1,439.2B
• Business profit: ¥147.6B
• Operating profit: ¥146.6B
• Net profit attributable to owners: ¥87.1B

Growth has been steady, supported by both staples stability and materials expansion.

Key Risks

• Semiconductor cycle volatility
• Food commodity inflation and FX exposure
• Potential long-term competition in ABF (though currently limited)

U.S. Trading Information

Ajinomoto trades primarily in Japan under:

• 2802.T (Tokyo Stock Exchange)

In the U.S., it is available via ADR:

• AJINY (OTC market)

The ADR is not listed on NYSE or Nasdaq and trades with lower liquidity compared to major exchange-listed ADRs.

Bottom Line

Ajinomoto is not a pure semiconductor powerhouse like ASML Holding N.V..

It is better described as:

Stable consumer staples cash flow + a strategically valuable semiconductor materials franchise.

For investors seeking resilience with moderate growth exposure and geographic diversification, Ajinomoto occupies a unique middle ground between traditional consumer staples and semiconductor cyclicals.

The Core Concern

“Too much money is being created. Over time, my cash will buy less. How do I protect my purchasing power?”

The worry is legitimate. Money debasement is a slow, systematic increase in the money supply that erodes real buying power over years and decades. It isn’t a sudden crisis—it’s a gradual loss of value that hurts savers and rewards businesses that can raise prices.

Why Oil, Gas, and Raw Commodities Aren’t a Sustainable Hedge

These factors make commodities excellent short‑term tactical plays but poor long‑term compounders.

What “Money Debasement” Actually Means

• Gradual increase in the money supply → slow erosion of purchasing power.
• Currencies rarely collapse; they simply lose value over time.
• The challenge is to own assets that benefit from this environment rather than merely survive it.

The real protection is owning businesses with pricing power that quietly benefit from money debasement.

Key Characteristics of Ideal Holdings

1. Pricing power – Ability to raise prices without losing demand.
2. Global footprint – Revenue in several currencies reduces exposure to any single economy.
3. Strong free‑cash‑flow generation – Fuels reinvestment and compounding.
4. Durable competitive moats – High switching costs, network effects, or unique IP.

Top Companies to Consider (Tiered by Strength of Moat and Cyclicality)

How to Use This Portfolio

1. Long‑term ownership – Treat each holding as a core building block, not a trade.
2. Periodic rebalancing – Review quarterly or semi‑annually; trim overweight positions and top‑up underweight ones.
3. Let compounding work – Reinvest dividends and free cash flow to accelerate growth.

Bottom Line

Money debasement erodes cash, but it helps businesses that can quietly raise prices each year. By concentrating on globally‑scaled, pricing‑power firms, you turn a macro‑level risk into a source of long‑term wealth creation.

Many investors believe AI will shape the future — but don’t want to make things complicated.

A common question we hear is:

“I believe AI will be important long term, but I don’t want to overthink it.”

That’s completely reasonable.

You don’t need dozens of stocks.
You don’t need perfect timing.
You don’t need to watch the market every day.

You just need exposure to the right parts of the AI ecosystem.

This post introduces The ETF Way — a simple, long-term approach designed for beginners, small accounts, and anyone who values clarity over complexity.

The ETF Way

Simple. Diversified. Low maintenance.

This approach is ideal if you:

• are new to investing
• have a smaller account
• want long-term exposure without constant decisions

Instead of picking individual stocks, we use a small group of ETFs — each representing a critical layer of the AI economy.

AI — the brains

Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ)

This ETF provides broad exposure to companies that build and use AI, including software, chips, and cloud platforms.

• Expense Ratio: ~0.68%
• Dividend Yield: ~0.1% (minimal)

Examples of companies inside:
Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet, TSMC, Broadcom

Think of AIQ as the growth engine of the AI economy.

Data Centers — the buildings

Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR)

AI doesn’t live in the cloud — it runs in physical data centers.

These facilities require massive power, advanced cooling, security, and constant upgrades.

• Expense Ratio: ~0.50%
• Dividend Yield: ~1.0%

Examples of companies inside:
Equinix, Digital Realty, American Tower, Crown Castle, SBA Communications

Yes, data centers are capital-intensive — and that creates high barriers to entry, long-term contracts, and sticky customers.

Power — the electricity

VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR)

AI systems need reliable electricity 24/7.

This ETF focuses on nuclear power and uranium — energy sources that provide steady baseload power.

• Expense Ratio: ~0.56%
• Dividend Yield: ~2.3%

Examples of companies inside:
Cameco, Constellation Energy, BWX Technologies, Kazatomprom, Centrus Energy

No power = no AI.

Cybersecurity — the protection

First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR)

As AI and data centers expand, cyber risk increases.

This ETF owns companies that protect networks, cloud systems, and data.

• Expense Ratio: ~0.59%
• Dividend Yield: ~0.4–0.5%

Examples of companies inside:
Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Cisco, Zscaler

Cybersecurity spending is not optional in a digital economy.

Suggested Allocation (Simple Starting Point)

This is a balanced, beginner-friendly allocation.
You can adjust it based on your risk tolerance, but this is a solid starting framework.

How to use this:

• You can start with one ETF at a time
• Fractional shares work perfectly
• Add money monthly or quarterly
• Rebalance once a year (or don’t — simplicity matters more)

How everything fits together

AI software → runs on servers  
Servers → sit in data centers  
Data centers → need electricity  
Everything → needs cybersecurity

Each ETF plays a different role.
There is very little overlap, and each layer supports the others.

Why this works well for beginners and small accounts

• Works for accounts as small as $2,000
• No need to buy expensive individual stocks
• Easy to automate contributions
• No daily monitoring required

This same structure also scales smoothly as your account grows.

Bottom line

You don’t need to predict the future perfectly.
You just need exposure to the foundations of the AI economy.

The ETF Way is:

• simple
• diversified
• beginner-friendly
• designed for long-term investors

In a future post, we’ll cover the stock-only approach for investors who want more control and are comfortable owning individual companies.

Know the Company

Hermès International is one of the most exclusive luxury brands in the world. Founded in 1837, the company is best known for its iconic leather goods (Birkin, Kelly), but it also sells ready-to-wear, silk, jewelry, watches, fragrances, and home products.

Hermès is not a fashion trend company. It is a craftsmanship-driven luxury house that prioritizes brand integrity, scarcity, and long-term value over short-term growth.

Ticker (US ADR): HESAY
(OTC-traded ADR for the Paris-listed RMS)

How Hermès Makes Money

Hermès generates revenue across several categories:

• Leather Goods & Saddlery (largest and most profitable segment)
• Ready-to-Wear & Accessories
• Silk & Textiles
• Perfumes & Beauty
• Watches, Jewelry & Home

The key point is not product diversity — it’s intentional scarcity.
Hermès controls supply tightly, raises prices regularly, and avoids discounting. Demand consistently exceeds supply, especially for leather goods.

This is why margins stay high without relying on financial engineering.

The Moat (Why This Business Is Hard to Replicate)

1. Brand at the Absolute Top

Hermès operates at the very top of global luxury. Its brand carries trust, status, and longevity that few companies — even in luxury — can match.

2. Scarcity by Design

Hermès does not chase volume. Production is deliberately constrained to preserve exclusivity. This allows:

• strong pricing power
• low demand volatility
• protection during economic slowdowns

3. Craftsmanship & Vertical Control

Hermès invests heavily in workshops, artisans, and internal production. This slows growth — but protects the brand and keeps quality unmatched.

Moat verdict: one of the strongest consumer moats in the world.

Financial Snapshot (Cash Is the Story)

Hermès is not just profitable — it converts profits into real cash.

Free Cash Flow (EUR, last 5 years)

• 4,223 Millions
• 4,072
• 3,750
• 3,770
• 3,002

5-year average FCF: 3,763

This is clean, repeatable cash flow with:

• minimal debt
• disciplined capex
• no dilution
• no accounting tricks

Hermès also holds a net cash balance sheet, which adds resilience and optionality.

Key Metrics (Why Quality Shows Up in the Numbers)

• FCF margin: 26.9% (elite for consumer businesses)
• ROE: 28.55%+
• ROIC: 22.54% consistently very high
• Debt: effectively none (net cash position)

This is a business that earns far more on its capital than it costs, year after year.

Valuation: Stress-Tested from Every Angle

Instead of EPS and multiples, we valued Hermès the right way:
multi-stage DCF using free cash flow.

DCF Assumptions Tested

We deliberately walked the assumptions down:

Scenario 1 — Reasonable

• Growth: 7.5% / 5% / 4%
• Intrinsic value: $621

Scenario 2 — Conservative

• Growth: 5% / 5% / 4%
• Intrinsic value: $565

Scenario 3 — Very Conservative

• Starting FCF: 5-year average (3,763)
• Growth: 5% / 5% / 4%
• Intrinsic value: $511

Scenario 4 — Ultra-Conservative (Borderline Pessimistic)

• Starting FCF: 5-year average
• Growth: 4% / 4% / 3.5%
• Intrinsic value: $477

What This Tells Us

Even when:

• growth barely exceeds inflation
• peak cash flows are removed
• assumptions are intentionally muted

Hermès still values near $480 per ADR.

That means the valuation is not fragile.
The business does not need heroic growth — it just needs to remain Hermès.

Risks (What Could Go Wrong)

• Global luxury demand slows temporarily
• Currency fluctuations (EUR vs USD for ADR holders)
• Management grows too fast and damages exclusivity (historically unlikely)

Importantly, none of these threaten the core moat.

Bottom Line

Hermès is a rare business where:

• brand power
• scarcity
• margins
• and cash flow durability

all reinforce each other.

Even under ultra-conservative assumptions, intrinsic value clusters around $477–$511, with upside into the $600+ range under reasonable conditions.

This is not a “cheap stock.”
It is a high-quality compounder that rewards patience.

If Hermès simply keeps doing what it has done for decades —
disciplined growth, price leadership, brand protection —
long-term owners should do very well.

ARM Holdings plc is one of the most important technology companies in the world — even though most people have never heard of it.

ARM does not make chips.
Instead, it designs the CPU architecture that other companies use to build their chips. ARM licenses this technology to companies like Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Amazon, Samsung, and many others.

Nearly every smartphone, many laptops, and a growing number of data-center and AI systems run on ARM.

How ARM Makes Money (Why This Matters)

ARM operates a royalty and licensing model:

• Upfront license fees when customers adopt ARM designs
• Ongoing royalties every time a chip using ARM ships

ARM:

• Does not own factories
• Does not hold inventory
• Does not compete with its customers

This makes ARM a capital-light, high-margin business that can scale globally with relatively low physical risk.

Where ARM Is Used Today

ARM began in mobile, but today it spans the entire computing stack:

• Mobile: ~99% of smartphones
• PCs & laptops: Apple Silicon, Windows on ARM
• Data centers: AWS Graviton, NVIDIA Grace
• AI systems: CPUs that feed GPUs and accelerators
• Automotive & IoT: Cars, sensors, embedded devices

As power efficiency becomes more important, ARM’s relevance continues to grow.

ARM’s Moat (Why It’s Hard to Replace)

ARM’s strength is not just its technology — it’s the ecosystem:

• Decades of software built for ARM
• Compilers, operating systems, and tools already optimized
• High switching costs for customers

Once a company builds its platform around ARM, leaving is difficult and expensive. This creates a wide and durable moat.

The SoftBank Connection (Important Context)

ARM is about 90% owned by SoftBank Group.

This matters because:

• ARM is SoftBank’s crown jewel
• Buying SoftBank means buying ARM plus leverage, venture bets, and manager risk
• Buying ARM directly gives investors clean exposure to the core business

ARM is the stable engine inside SoftBank’s far more volatile structure.

Key Metrics to Know (High Level)

ARM is best judged as an IP licensing business, not a manufacturer.

Some important characteristics:

• Very high gross margins (reflecting IP economics)
• Low capital intensity (no fabs, no inventory)
• Royalty-based recurring revenue
• Low reported ROIC today, due to:
  • Heavy R&D investment
  • Accounting treatment of IP
  • Ongoing expansion into data centers and AI

Low ROIC today does not mean a weak business — it reflects front-loaded investment in a long-term moat.

Valuation: High Quality, High Expectations

ARM currently trades at a premium valuation.

The market is pricing in:

• Continued growth in AI, cloud, and custom silicon
• ARM’s expanding role beyond mobile
• Long-term operating leverage

This leaves little room for disappointment.

My Fair Value View

Based on ARM’s business quality, growth potential, and risks:

• High end of fair value: $117
• Low end of fair value: $95

How I interpret this:

• Below ~$95 → attractive
• $95–$117 → fairly valued, scale carefully
• Above ~$117 → priced for optimism

ARM is a great business, but not one to chase at any price.

Bottom Line

ARM Holdings is the quiet infrastructure layer behind modern computing — a capital-light, wide-moat licensing business that benefits as the entire tech industry grows. While SoftBank owns about 90% of ARM and uses it as the backbone of its portfolio, ARM itself offers a cleaner, lower-risk way to access this long-term thesis. The key risk today is valuation, not business quality.

When people talk about the “AI boom,” they usually imagine GPUs, data centers, and cloud computing. But behind all of that, there’s one thing every AI company desperately needs:

Electricity. A lot of it.

Data centers are growing so fast that many regions are running out of power. AI training and inference consume enormous amounts of energy, and traditional grids can’t keep up. This is where nuclear energy becomes incredibly important — and why uranium, the fuel used in nuclear reactors, is getting so much attention.

What Is Uranium and Why Is It So Useful?

Uranium is a naturally occurring metal found in the earth’s crust. It has a unique ability:

A very small amount of uranium can produce a massive amount of energy.

Here’s why it matters today:

• Nuclear power is clean — zero carbon emissions.
• It’s reliable — unlike solar and wind, it runs 24/7.
• It’s extremely energy-dense — a few pellets can power a home for months.
• It’s perfect for AI-heavy countries that need stable electricity to run data centers.

As the world enters the AI era, countries like the U.S., France, China, Japan, and South Korea are all looking to expand nuclear power. Even developing regions are planning new reactors.

This global shift brings us to a big investing question:

NUKZ vs URA — Which Nuclear ETF Should You Choose?

There are two popular ways to invest in the nuclear and uranium trend:

• NUKZ — focuses on the future of nuclear energy
• URA — focuses on uranium mining and the price of uranium

They sound similar, but they behave very differently.

Let’s break it down simply.

NUKZ: A Bet on the Future of Nuclear Energy

NUKZ invests across the entire nuclear ecosystem, including:

• Nuclear power plants and utilities
• Companies building new reactors
• Nuclear technology and engineering firms
• Fuel processing companies
• Infrastructure and services

What this means:

NUKZ does not rely purely on uranium prices. Instead, it wins when the world builds more reactors and expands nuclear power capacity.

In simple English:
NUKZ = clean energy + stable long-term nuclear growth
Broader, more diversified
Less volatile than pure uranium miners

If you believe governments and companies will build more nuclear reactors to power AI data centers, cities, and industries, NUKZ is the better choice.

URA: A Bet on a Uranium Price Boom

URA is different. It focuses mostly on uranium miners, including:

• Companies that dig uranium out of the ground
• Firms that process or enrich uranium
• A small amount of physical uranium exposure

This means URA rises and falls with uranium prices.

When uranium prices go up, miners can shoot up fast.
When prices drop, miners fall hard.

In simple English:
URA = higher risk, higher reward tied to the uranium commodity
More volatile
Best when uranium supply is tight and demand is rising

If you believe uranium prices will surge because the world doesn’t have enough supply for new reactors, URA is the better choice.

Which Is Better for You?

Here’s the simplest way to decide:

Choose NUKZ if:

• You want long-term exposure to nuclear energy
• You believe the world will build more reactors
• You prefer a smoother, more stable investment
• You want to ride the nuclear renaissance, not just uranium prices

Choose URA if:

• You want to benefit from a uranium price spike
• You’re comfortable with bigger ups and downs
• You specifically want exposure to uranium mining companies
• You want more leverage to the commodity itself

Many investors hold both

NUKZ gives long-term stability.
URA gives upside if uranium prices explode.

Together, they cover both sides of the nuclear story.

Final Thoughts

AI, electrification, and global demand for clean power are pushing the world back toward nuclear energy. Uranium sits at the center of this movement.

• If the nuclear industry grows → NUKZ benefits.
• If uranium prices rise → URA benefits.

Both ETFs play different but complementary roles.

For long-term investors, that’s not an ideal setup. Commodities go through booms and busts. True wealth-building comes from owning companies that can compound earnings year after year, regardless of commodity swings.

If you’re interested in the future of nuclear and clean energy, there are better ways to play the theme — especially by investing in world-class companies with durable moats and multiple growth engines.

1. Utilities & Operators

Instead of mining uranium, look at the companies that generate electricity from nuclear plants:

• Constellation Energy (CEG) runs one of the largest nuclear fleets in the U.S.
• These businesses earn money by selling power through contracts, giving them more stable and predictable revenues.
• They benefit directly from higher demand for clean, reliable baseload power without being tied to uranium prices.

2. Nuclear Technology & Services

Think of these as the “picks and shovels” providers in nuclear:

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) builds reactors and key components, including for defense and small modular reactors (SMRs).
• Westinghouse services and maintains reactors worldwide, providing recurring revenue streams.

These companies don’t rely on commodity swings. Their revenue is tied to long-term service contracts, manufacturing expertise, and regulatory moats.

3. Clean Energy Infrastructure

The clean energy transition is broader than just nuclear:

• NextEra Energy (NEE) and Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) are leaders in solar, wind, and hydro.
• Linde (LIN) and Air Products (APD) are building hydrogen infrastructure and carbon-capture solutions.

These firms have durable competitive advantages: scale, capital access, customer relationships, and strong positions in regulated or hard-to-replicate industries.

4. Fusion Energy & Big Tech Optionality

Pure fusion startups (like Helion, Commonwealth Fusion, TAE) are still private, but the tech giants are already securing exposure:

• Amazon (AMZN)
  • Invested in X-energy (advanced SMRs) and partnered with Energy Northwest to deploy SMRs.
  • Signed long-term nuclear power agreements with Talen Energy, locking in carbon-free baseload power for its data centers through 2042.
  • Co-locates data centers near nuclear plants to ensure reliability.
  • Through AWS, Amazon supports nuclear R&D with AI and cloud computing.
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Signed a groundbreaking deal with Helion Energy to purchase fusion power by 2028.
  • Uses Azure cloud and AI to help accelerate advanced energy R&D.
• Google (GOOGL)
  • Provides AI and cloud computing for national labs and fusion startups.
  • Invests in clean energy PPAs and next-generation grid technologies.

These companies don’t just “dabble” in nuclear — they use it to secure their long-term energy needs, reduce carbon footprints, and create new business opportunities.

Why Giants Like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google Are Better Plays

Unlike a uranium miner, these companies offer:

• Multiple Revenue Streams: Nuclear is just one part of their business. They also dominate cloud computing, e-commerce, advertising, or productivity software — all of which are recurring and high margin.
• Pricing Power: They set terms with customers and capture value from their scale and network effects. Miners, by contrast, are price-takers.
• Financial Strength: These giants have the balance sheets to fund multi-billion-dollar energy projects without risking survival. That’s a luxury miners don’t have.
• Strategic Optionality: They benefit from many energy innovations at once — nuclear, renewables, AI-driven grid management — not just a single commodity.
• Long-Term Growth: Their investments in energy security strengthen their core businesses (e.g., cloud, AI, logistics), which compounds shareholder value.

Comparison: CCJ vs Better Energy Plays

Bottom Line

If you believe in the long-term future of nuclear and clean energy, speculating on a mining stock like CCJ is not the only option. A smarter approach is to own the builders, operators, and enablers — utilities, infrastructure leaders, and tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

These companies combine energy security with multiple growth engines, giving you exposure to the future of power while also compounding earnings in ways commodity miners never can.

Now, don’t get me wrong; those skills are absolutely valuable. In fact, I’ve personally used them to make a living for the past ten years. But over time, I’ve come to realize that one of the most powerful skills in investing is also one of the most overlooked: patience.

Benjamin Graham, widely regarded as the father of value investing, once said:

“In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

Let that sink in for a moment.

Investing and Patience Go Hand in Hand

Investing is inherently a long-term endeavor. While people might refer to day trading or crypto flipping as “investing,” those are often more accurately labeled as speculation, trading — or let’s be honest — gambling.

True investing, the kind that builds real wealth, plays out over years, not weeks or months. And because it takes time for great businesses to grow and compound, patience becomes an essential skill for any successful investor.

If you take a step back, life works the same way. Anything worth having takes time. You can’t rush a meaningful career, a lasting relationship, or the process of becoming skilled at something important. Amazon struggled for over a decade before it truly hit its stride. A fruit tree takes 3–5 years (or more) before it bears harvestable fruit.

Think about your own life — haven’t your most meaningful achievements come from staying committed over the long haul?

So yes, patience is not just an investing skill; it’s a life skill.

But how do you build it?

3 Practical Ways to Strengthen Your Patience Muscle

1⃣ Have a Long-Term Plan — And Stick to It

The best way to cultivate patience is to build a thoughtful investment plan and keep it in front of you — especially during volatile or uncertain times.

Your plan should be written when you’re thinking rationally, not emotionally. It becomes your North Star when markets get bumpy.

A solid plan includes:

• How much you’ll invest each month — no matter what the market is doing.
• Which stocks or funds you’ll stick with — not whatever your friends or the news are hyping.
• What price ranges you’re willing to pay — based on valuation, not vibes.
• Your asset allocation based on your personal risk tolerance — not market noise.

When fear kicks in, your plan is what keeps you grounded. It reminds you that volatility is normal and that you’re in this for the long game.

2⃣ Focus on Fundamentals, Not Fear

Markets don’t crash because the world is ending. They usually decline because investors panic due to news headlines, policy changes, war fears, inflation, or just uncertainty.

But here’s the truth: Fear-based corrections are temporary. Fundamentals endure.

If you can train yourself to look beyond the noise and focus on the long-term fundamentals, like earnings growth, margins, innovation, or industry leadership; you’ll stay patient and avoid the emotional sellouts that so many others fall into.

Market volatility isn’t a bug in the system; it’s the cost of admission. And it’s a price worth paying for long-term returns.

Don’t let the media hijack your emotions. Stay focused, stay rational, and stick to your strategy.

3⃣ Build Staying Power — Cash is a Patience Buffer

The final way to develop greater patience is to never put yourself in a situation where you have to sell during a downturn.

This is why an emergency fund is so powerful. It gives you staying power.

By keeping 3–12 months of living expenses in a liquid, easily accessible place, you buy yourself breathing room. You won’t be forced to sell your long-term investments just to cover rent or groceries during a downturn.

Why is this important?

Because desperation clouds judgment. When you’re panicked about making ends meet, rational thinking goes out the window — and that’s when bad investing decisions happen.

Staying power gives you time, and time gives you patience.

Final Thoughts: The Keystone Skill of a Millionaire

Corrections will come. Bear markets will happen. But so far, history shows they always end.

The investors who build real wealth are the ones who stay in the game long enough to see their investments mature. They keep buying, even when it’s scary. They trust the process, even when the media screams otherwise.

Patience is a superpower.
It’s the difference between chasing quick wins and building generational wealth.

So if you want to master investing, don’t just sharpen your Excel skills or memorize P/E ratios. Work on your patience — because that’s the skill that will quietly, steadily, and surely make you a millionaire one day.

Believe me. I’ve done it.

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a surprise military operation against Iran, striking nuclear facilities and killing top Iranian officials. The move, known as Operation Rising Lion, came just days before a planned U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiation in Oman. This led many to believe Israel acted to disrupt the talks.

Targets included key sites like Natanz (a major nuclear enrichment hub) and missile development centers. Explosions lit up Tehran. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the strikes, vowing continued action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s Response — Lots of Noise, Little Impact

Iran responded by sending around 100 drones toward Israel. But nearly all were intercepted by Israeli air defenses — with help from regional neighbors like Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Despite aggressive rhetoric and calls this a “declaration of war,” Iran’s retaliation has so far been contained to drones and threats. Thankfully, no radiation leaks or mass civilian casualties have been reported. Talks, however, are now suspended.

Global Fallout and Market Reaction

World powers condemned the attack, while the U.S. walked a fine line: not involved, but reportedly aware of the plan in advance.

Markets didn’t take it well:

• Oil jumped 7–8% on supply fears
• Gold soared past $3,440 as a safe haven
• Stock futures dropped 1.5–2% overnight
• Flights rerouted across the Middle East as airspace closed

Why I’m Seeing Green in a Sea of Red

This isn’t the first time markets panicked over war headlines. Historically, they snap back quickly — because the fundamentals of strong businesses don’t change due to far-off geopolitical noise.

Companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and NVIDIA (NVDA) aren’t tied to oil, missiles, or drone strikes. But their stock prices are being pulled down anyway — and that’s an opening for investors.

These are businesses with moats, cash flows, and long runways. When their prices fall for reasons unrelated to their actual performance, that’s a gift.

Final Word: Fear Creates Opportunity

Yes, the headlines are loud. But wars tend to be short-lived market shocks. Unless you believe this will spiral into something far bigger — and permanent — history says to stay the course.

I’m not buying oil stocks. I’m not buying gold. I’m buying high-quality companies while others panic.

Because the market always recovers — and the best returns go to those who stayed calm while others ran for the exits.

Panic is temporary. Compounding is forever.